tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post2442179171145073995..comments2019-08-14T10:58:28.547-07:00Comments on Resistentialism Incarnate: IranJohnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16229649515127565797noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-85869074732466525042009-06-16T07:16:35.711-07:002009-06-16T07:16:35.711-07:00On further thought, we oughtn't overlay our ow...On further thought, we oughtn't overlay our own electoral culture on the people of Iran. They've got a different baseline culture than we do in the US, so we oughtn't make the assumptions that what applies here (Dean not taking NH, for example) applies there.<br /><br />It's easy to interpret the reactions of the IRG and those who support the mullahs as being out of fear: they fear that the people will rise up and boot them out of power. It's one possible interpretation, and I'm sure there are others, and it's entirely possible (quite likely?) that it's not the case at all.<br /><br />But oppressive regimes rule through fear, and there's no doubt that they fear insurrection and do all they can to silence voices of dissent. It's a cycle that feeds itself and feeds on itself.<br /><br />Sullivan linked to this piece: http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2009/06/15/so-hows-it-going-in-iran/ I don't know anything about Ledeen's cred.CD Covingtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18130960187504382508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-8088486918772333322009-06-16T06:02:31.947-07:002009-06-16T06:02:31.947-07:00I think I got the Asia Times link via Andrew Sulli...I think I got the Asia Times link via Andrew Sullivan. Major US media outlets weren't particularly informative, and I don't get cable anymore.<br /><br />The graphs at 538 I think are telling: comparing the regions that voted for the reform candidate 4 years ago and now show an unlikely massive reversal of preference on home turf.<br /><br />I'm not an expert in Middle Eastern or Central Asian politics by any means; I can only take all the information out there and sift through it, giving more credence to some sources than others.<br /><br />I've read that Ahmadinejad has taken their economy into a massive downturn, with high unemployment. I've read that that's a big factor in the sentiment against him.<br /><br />I've read that the vote totals were announced within hours of the polls closing - not the statistical probabilities like we use here, based on exit polls and precincts reporting, but a full tally of 18 million votes that were cast by hand, without optical scanning devices. That seems pretty damned unlikely, and based on what I've read about historical elections, the results aren't published for a day or so.<br /><br />Nothing about it makes sense. I don't trust the Guardian Council under Khamenei to provide an impartial review of the results. I'd rather see an impartial body (the UN? Jimmy Carter?) oversee it, and a re-vote.<br /><br />And the IRG and Basiji are killing people in their homes as well as in the streets. That makes me a little suspicious.CD Covingtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18130960187504382508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-45656274959574913702009-06-15T20:14:59.350-07:002009-06-15T20:14:59.350-07:00(I had to seriously cut that post to fit in the al...(I had to seriously cut that post to fit in the alloted space; my apologies if it doesn't make sense as a result, but I'm up past my bedtime)Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16229649515127565797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-71100467510371951262009-06-15T20:14:10.222-07:002009-06-15T20:14:10.222-07:00I could have sworn that the news station I was wat...I could have sworn that the news station I was watching called NC for Obama while I was still eating dinner, but then you'd remember better than me. Virginia, then. It doesn't matter - for an election win that size, a few hours is a reasonable time in which to know it. Any comparisons are merely to underscore the point: while unusually quick to announce it (and possibly a violation of Iranian procedure/law) it's not unreasonable to expect them to know the results that quickly if the results were not close.<br /><br />My problem with most of the Western media coverage that they are still Western journalists talking primarily to English-speaking Iranians, who are a minority and who are pretty widely anti-Ahmadinajed. The Azeri thing could be true, who am I to know? Do we *know* that it's unusual for Azeris to vote against their own? Maybe they hate this guy. Maybe they've been bribed by Ahmadinejad every day for the past four years with free candy. But I do remember folks here in New Hampshire being stunned that Howard Dean lost the primary here, despite being considered much more "one of us" than that Masshole Kerry. And that was with modern polling with a pretty modern population. We listened to the echo chamber, while people were voting for their own reasons, and we got blindsided. Gore lost his home state, and I've never heard that touted as proof of vote tampering, even among thousands of other allegations.<br /><br />Most of the sources I'm seeing that I trust are being vague; the sources that are die-hard certain are coming out of nowhere. The Asia Times isn't exactly on my daily reading list - are you actually a regular reader, or did you get the link from someone else? I'm perfectly willing to believe that there was foul play involved, and the 538 link carries weight with me, sure, but the majority of the parties I've heard from are just not known to me - and I doubt that they're known to the people posting the links. It's dead easy to surf the web and find news organizations writing compelling pieces arguing exactly your point of view.<br /><br />The results are bizarre. And I want to believe that this was blatant fraud, and that Ahmadinejad will be run out of power as a result - that would be GREAT, it would literally make the Middle East a better place overnight. But there's a lot of "fog of war" right now, and the prevailing theories have major logical holes. For example, the only mechanism I've heard is simply, "They didn't count the votes, they just made them up." But that rings false - I can see why they might make up results, sure, but why on earth would they make up *these* results? These are smart, crafty people who presumably know the Azeris a hell of a lot better than either of us do. They know how likely it is that these people would lose their own home regions and hometowns. And you're telling me that they care enough to fake individual vote counts by city, but not enough to fake realistic vote counts? It just doesn't make sense. Which is more likely to be true, that they faked ridiculous results, or that we don't know what realistic results look like? Real fraud doesn't usually look like this. More often it looks like little improbable bumps where it counts, just enough to put your guy over the top, or it looks like Saddam Hussein getting 90-something percent of the vote.<br /><br />As it stands, people who know Iran better than I do -- Iranians -- are still arguing about the subject. Sure, groups I've never heard of are condemning the election results. And groups I've never heard of are affirming them. The fieriest quotes are from groups like the National Iranian American Council or the Basij: hardly non-partisan. I'm waiting to hear someone make a cohesive rational argument that explains the major doubts, or provide proof, or at least acknowledge that in the absence of neither, there remains doubt.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16229649515127565797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-35533391582250710342009-06-15T17:37:26.100-07:002009-06-15T17:37:26.100-07:00Sorry to make a second comment. I got pasting to w...Sorry to make a second comment. I got pasting to work.<br /><br />http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iran-does-have-some-fishy-numbers.html<br /><br />http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak02.htmlCD Covingtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18130960187504382508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-68652457974734675582009-06-15T17:36:29.810-07:002009-06-15T17:36:29.810-07:00It still took 3 days for NC to be called for Obama...It still took 3 days for NC to be called for Obama, and 2 weeks to be verified.<br /><br />There's some number crunching on 538.com, and one of the zillion articles/posts I read today seems to back it up. Mousavi is an Azeri, and he LOST by wide margins in his home region. Azeris are reportedly very close-knit, so they'd vote for one of their own over an outsider (I think it was an article at AsiaTimes that for some reason I can't copy-paste into here.) To make an analogy, it was like Pat Buchanan winning in Miami Beach a few years ago.CD Covingtonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18130960187504382508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-70147043869471722142009-06-15T15:11:12.841-07:002009-06-15T15:11:12.841-07:00(Fixing a typo that inverted the meaning of the se...(Fixing a typo that inverted the meaning of the sentence)<br />To address a comment I got by IM:<br />Sure, there were plenty of irregularities and plainly some dirty pool. There are a few suspicious acts that do make me wonder whether my analysis might be wrong. First and foremost: the partial communications blackout, and the fact that it wasn't lifted when the polls closed. The prior blackout was just dirty pool - it plainly impacted Mousavi's technically adept supporters more than Ahmadinejad's poorer and more old-fashioned boosters. But keeping them closed after the polls closed suggests advance planning, and altogether is indicative of the kind of organization and high-level support that would be required for a massive vote swindle. It's not proof, but it's certainly not counter-proof.<br /><br />The bit that has been more seized-on has been the early announcement, compared to the last election where they were announced the next day by a different committee. I'm skeptical of this. I strongly suspect that the Ayatollah specifically intended to be kept abreast of results. And come on, it's been four years since the last election. Surely they've made some progress in getting returns in faster? And it's a lot easier to call a huge win like this than a nail-biter that might or might not go to runoff. The US news called North Carolina for Obama faster than the Ayatollah called the Iranian countryside for Ahmadinejad, after all.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16229649515127565797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4490806120643804324.post-71973450503541698352009-06-15T15:09:52.921-07:002009-06-15T15:09:52.921-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16229649515127565797noreply@blogger.com